MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION POLICY IN UKRAINE: MANAGING IMBALANCES IN THE CONTEXT OF WAR AND RECOVERY

Abstract

The article examines the problem of ensuring macrofinancial stability in Ukraine under the conditions of full-scale war and transformation processes associated with post-war economic recovery. The relevance of the topic is substantiated in view of the intensification of financial imbalances, the growing debt burden, inflationary risks, and the instability of financial flows, which significantly affect the functioning of the national economy. The study analyzes the dynamics of key macrofinancial indicators, including the inflation rate, exchange rate of the national currency, the central bank’s policy rate, interest rates of commercial banks, the volume of lending, parameters of the state budget, the level of budget deficit and public debt, as well as the condition of the financial market. It is determined that the current state of the macrofinancial system is characterized by significant structural imbalances caused by both internal and external factors. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the impact of wartime factors on the formation of macrofinancial instability, including the decline in economic activity, disruption of production and logistics chains, changes in the structure of public expenditures, and increased dependence on external sources of financing. It is established that under wartime conditions there is a transformation of state regulation instruments aimed at maintaining the liquidity of the financial system and ensuring its resilience. The article outlines the key aspects of macrofinancial stabilization policy, including ensuring fiscal sustainability through controlling the budget deficit and managing public debt; maintaining price and exchange rate stability through monetary policy instruments; restoring credit activity and the functioning of the banking sector; strengthening coordination between fiscal and monetary policy; and ensuring effective interaction between public institutions and international financial partners. It is proven that the effective implementation of macrofinancial stabilization policy requires a comprehensive approach that combines short-term stabilization measures with long-term structural reforms. The necessity of strengthening institutional capacity, developing the financial market, diversifying sources of financing, and integrating Ukraine into the global financial system as prerequisites for ensuring economic resilience and sustainable development is substantiated.