МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЗАЛЕЖНОСТІ ЕНЕРГОСПОЖИВАННЯ ВІД ОБСЯГІВ ВИРОБНИЦТВА

N. V. Maiborodina; V. P. Gerasymenko

doi:10.32782/2521-6643-2026-2-72.46

N. V. Maiborodina Separated Subdivision National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine «Nizhyn Agrotechnical Institute» https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1754-6790
V. P. Gerasymenko Separated Subdivision National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine «Nizhyn Agrotechnical Institute» https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4017-1141

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2521-6643-2026-2-72.46

Keywords: production output, electricity consumption, regression analysis, analysis of variance, econometric model, forecasting

Abstract

The article examines the dependence between production output (performance of works) and electricity consumption by enterprises of the Chernihiv region. The relevance of the study is determined by the necessity of increasing the efficiency of energy consumption under conditions of economic instability in the region. The analysis of descriptive characteristics showed the proximity of the mean value and the median for production volumes and electricity consumption by enterprises, which indicates the relative symmetry of the distributions and the absence of outliers in the samples. Negative skewness values indicated left-sided asymmetry, while negative kurtosis values characterized the distributions as flatter compared to the normal distribution. The standard deviation and the range of variation are significantly higher for the indicator of electricity consumption, which indicates greater variability of energy consumption compared to production volumes and confirms the higher sensitivity of energy consumption to external economic conditions. The obtained statistical characteristics confirmed the expediency of applying correlation and regression analysis to investigate the dependence between the specified indicators. For the quantitative assessment of the interrelationship between the indicators, a linear regression model was constructed. The correlation and determination coefficients, the standard error of regression, and the mean approximation error were calculated. The results of the analysis showed the presence of a close direct statistically significant relationship between production volumes and electricity consumption. The value of the coefficient of determination confirmed a high level of explanatory power of the model and the dominant influence of production volume on the formation of electricity demand. Verification according to Student’s and Fisher’s criteria confirmed the statistical significance of the model parameters and the model as a whole. The obtained model is characterized by high approximation accuracy and may be used to forecast electricity consumption volumes depending on the dynamics of production output

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MODELING THE DEPENDENCE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON PRODUCTION VOLUMES

Abstract

References